Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 10.586987 12.138910 13.807482 15.731032 17.883353 20.213394 22.922561
2025-11-23 8.121388 10.187717 12.581451 15.543828 19.094645 23.196381 28.274225
2025-11-30 6.973628 9.269122 12.057786 15.665665 20.177298 25.597775 32.564024
2025-12-07 6.222480 8.709743 11.861456 16.100769 21.599800 28.432298 37.495716
2025-12-14 5.407588 7.935640 11.263973 15.899935 22.112297 30.062447 40.903438
2025-12-21 4.575010 7.031389 10.387715 15.222132 21.903958 30.696196 42.998690
2025-12-28 4.234425 6.767518 10.338464 15.627775 23.127455 33.223364 47.649431
2026-01-04 3.903143 6.476185 10.212952 15.895911 24.148928 35.497098 52.030119
2026-01-11 3.512076 6.050781 9.848854 15.778094 24.593829 36.969462 55.342202
2026-01-18 3.162859 5.652344 9.485386 15.621329 24.951307 38.308212 58.492509
2026-01-25 2.894164 5.354420 9.246283 15.624146 25.525757 39.959535 62.128683
2026-02-01 2.684555 5.132316 9.104377 15.758065 26.289624 41.900439 66.238935
2026-02-08 2.449939 4.849493 8.849354 15.705265 26.777400 43.475697 69.913870
2026-02-15 2.221860 4.555259 8.551270 15.559330 27.105115 44.817001 73.287097
2026-02-22 2.063300 4.369337 8.417421 15.666445 27.826627 46.769340 77.633103
2026-03-01 1.973551 4.302525 8.482270 16.107017 29.102906 49.622247 83.453754
2026-03-08 1.793557 4.043713 8.186014 15.904180 29.299756 50.775282 86.659837
2026-03-15 1.565647 3.665363 7.641873 15.226889 28.656366 50.548736 87.666678
2026-03-22 1.503164 3.617165 7.703987 15.632396 29.872015 53.363474 93.607555
2026-03-29 1.427804 3.534190 7.692886 15.900690 30.856983 55.829104 99.057617
2026-04-05 1.313246 3.354978 7.481622 15.782810 31.152445 57.155473 102.684260
2026-04-12 1.204690 3.177163 7.258564 15.626016 31.365103 58.342009 106.107946
2026-04-19 1.121925 3.048786 7.124405 15.628829 31.861315 60.019772 110.393571